KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 08 · 22:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

>99%

85%

66%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

HRESNO 17.0¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.05u · HRES −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00	85.9%	61.0%	80.8%	48.1%	55.3%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	85.9%	61.0%	80.8%	48.1%	55.3%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	85.9%	61.0%	80.8%	48.1%	55.3%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	85.9%	61.0%	91.0%	48.1%	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	85.9%	61.0%	91.0%	48.1%	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	85.9%	61.0%	91.0%	48.1%	55.3%
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	98.6%	61.0%	91.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	98.6%	61.0%	91.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	98.6%	61.0%	91.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	98.6%	61.0%	91.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	98.6%	61.0%	91.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	98.6%	84.6%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	98.6%	84.6%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	98.6%	84.6%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	99.8%	84.6%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	99.8%	84.3%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	99.8%	85.1%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	99.8%	85.1%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	99.8%	85.1%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	99.8%	85.1%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	99.8%	85.1%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	99.8%	85.1%	100.0%	95.8%	51.2%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	99.9%	85.1%	100.0%	65.9%	99.3%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	99.9%	85.1%	100.0%	65.9%	99.3%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	99.9%	85.1%	100.0%	65.9%	99.3%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	99.9%	85.1%	100.0%	65.9%	99.3%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	99.9%	85.1%	100.0%	65.9%	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	75.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	>99%	75.5°F	6.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	67.8°F	8.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	60.0°F	8.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗