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KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 07 · 10:24 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
WN2
33%
ICON
18%
HRES
9%
AIFS
1%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 39.5¢Risks 39.45u
VS
AIFSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.55u · AIFS −60.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00IFS HRES: 9.3% · 2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00IFS HRES: 9.3% · 2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00IFS HRES: 9.3% · 2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.3% · 2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00IFS HRES: 9.3% · 2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:0010-07 07:2310-07 08:5410-07 10:24
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:001.3%77.6%32.6%9.3%18.3%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:001.3%77.6%32.6%9.3%18.3%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:001.3%77.6%32.6%9.3%18.3%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:001.3%77.6%32.6%9.3%18.3%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:001.3%77.6%32.6%9.3%18.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble78%71.4°F9.1°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
National Blend52%65.0°F9.8°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 233%62.1°F5.3°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending
ICON18%55.7°F9.8°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
IFS HRES9%56.1°F6.4°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
AIFS Single1%52.1°F5.6°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗