KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 07 · 10:24 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

33%

18%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.5¢Risks 39.45u

AIFSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.55u · AIFS −60.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	74.8%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	90.7%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.4%	5.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	5.6%	14.5%	0.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	4.6%	17.0%	3.6%	—	60.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	92.7%	89.3%	50.0%	—	56.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	71.9%	46.8%	85.1%	—	61.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	94.0%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	96.1%	36.9%	81.0%	—	74.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	97.6%	68.9%	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	98.2%	67.8%	99.9%	—	96.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	96.9%	93.7%	—	—	92.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	95.2%	92.7%	97.5%	—	97.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	95.8%	79.7%	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.8%	90.6%	99.7%	—	98.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	96.2%	88.1%	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	95.6%	98.8%	99.9%	97.7%	99.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	96.9%	99.9%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	96.0%	98.9%	96.2%	—	98.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	96.9%	99.8%	77.7%	—	99.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	97.5%	100.0%	97.7%	99.9%	99.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.9%	99.5%	93.8%	—	99.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.0%	97.9%	99.0%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.2%	99.9%	98.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.3%	99.4%	98.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	71.4°F	9.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	65.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	62.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
ICON	18%	55.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	56.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	52.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 65°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗