KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

>99%

97%

95%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 97.2¢Risks 24.31u

ICONNO 2.8¢Risks 0.69u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.69u · ICON −0.69u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	55.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	70.3%	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	95.6%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	87.8%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	3.6%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	3.9%	10.9%	0.2%	—	15.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	3.1%	12.8%	2.4%	—	52.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	89.7%	85.4%	42.4%	—	49.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	64.8%	39.0%	80.0%	—	54.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	91.2%	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	93.9%	29.3%	74.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	96.1%	61.0%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	96.9%	59.6%	99.8%	—	94.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	95.0%	90.4%	—	—	88.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	92.4%	89.0%	95.9%	—	96.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	93.3%	72.4%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	97.7%	85.8%	99.3%	—	97.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	93.7%	82.3%	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	92.6%	97.8%	99.8%	95.8%	99.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	94.5%	99.9%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	93.0%	97.9%	93.4%	—	97.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	94.3%	99.5%	68.5%	—	98.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	95.2%	99.9%	95.5%	99.8%	98.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	97.7%	98.9%	89.2%	—	99.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	97.7%	95.7%	97.7%	100.0%	99.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.2%	99.6%	96.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.3%	98.4%	97.4%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.2%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	74.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	95%	73.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	66.0°F	8.1°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 17:09 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗