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KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
WN2
>99%
EPS
>99%
HRES
97%
ICON
95%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 97.2¢Risks 24.31u
VS
ICONNO 2.8¢Risks 0.69u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.69u · ICON −0.69u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00AIFS Single: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00ICON: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00ICON: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00ICON: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00ICON: 94.8% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:0010-10 17:0910-10 20:1010-10 22:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:0099.3%99.6%99.7%93.0%98.3%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:0099.3%99.6%99.7%93.0%98.3%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:0099.3%99.6%99.7%93.0%98.3%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:0099.7%99.6%99.7%93.0%94.8%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:0099.7%99.6%99.7%93.0%94.8%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:0099.7%99.6%99.7%93.0%94.8%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:0099.7%99.6%99.7%93.0%94.8%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:0099.7%99.6%99.7%96.9%94.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%78.0°F4.6°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%75.7°F3.7°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble>99%75.8°F3.9°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES97%74.8°F5.0°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
ICON95%73.3°F4.8°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-10 14:00Pending
National Blend52%66.0°F8.1°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 17:09 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗