KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

92%

47%

30%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.2¢Risks 62.25u

ICONNO 37.8¢Risks 37.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.75u · ICON −37.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	73.9%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	52.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	—	11.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	46.9%	38.7%	6.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	15.4%	4.7%	28.8%	—	9.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	46.7%	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	53.3%	2.2%	21.3%	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	60.2%	11.1%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	62.9%	9.7%	91.0%	—	51.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	52.7%	39.3%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	42.7%	34.7%	54.6%	—	56.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	43.4%	14.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	61.5%	26.3%	77.5%	—	62.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	41.1%	20.4%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	35.9%	58.2%	86.6%	46.9%	69.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	39.5%	86.8%	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	33.1%	54.4%	34.1%	—	53.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	34.6%	73.3%	6.7%	—	61.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	35.2%	87.9%	36.3%	81.7%	58.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	45.2%	57.2%	19.1%	—	65.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	42.6%	32.0%	42.6%	97.0%	69.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	43.6%	66.3%	33.7%	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	40.7%	42.0%	34.3%	76.0%	76.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	67.5%	79.9%	48.6%	—	90.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	77.8%	41.4%	45.7%	87.0%	96.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	59.0%	74.0%	51.5%	—	85.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	56.3%	54.7%	95.6%	77.4%	85.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	71.9%	56.6%	86.9%	—	77.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	76.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	77.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	76.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	72.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	70.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗