KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

92%

47%

30%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.2¢Risks 62.25u

ICONNO 37.8¢Risks 37.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.75u · ICON −37.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:24+00:00	95.7%	92.7%	99.0%	43.8%	56.6%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	95.7%	92.7%	99.0%	43.8%	56.6%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	95.7%	92.7%	99.0%	43.8%	56.6%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	95.7%	92.7%	99.3%	43.8%	56.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	95.7%	92.7%	99.3%	43.8%	56.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	95.7%	92.7%	99.3%	43.8%	56.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	86.2%	92.7%	99.3%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	86.2%	92.7%	99.3%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	86.2%	92.7%	99.3%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	86.2%	92.7%	99.3%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	86.2%	92.7%	99.3%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	86.2%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	86.2%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	86.2%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.2%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.2%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	93.4%	92.6%	99.2%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	82.3%	92.6%	99.2%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	82.3%	92.6%	99.2%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	82.3%	92.6%	99.2%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	82.3%	92.6%	99.2%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	82.3%	92.6%	99.2%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	82.3%	92.6%	93.9%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	82.3%	95.3%	93.9%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	82.3%	95.3%	93.9%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	92.8%	95.3%	93.9%	47.1%	29.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	92.5%	94.9%	93.5%	47.1%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	76.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	77.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	76.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	72.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	70.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗