KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

84%

76%

61%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.7¢Risks 80.65u

EPSNO 19.4¢Risks 19.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.35u · EPS −19.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	94.3%	20.0%	84.5%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	94.3%	20.0%	84.5%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	94.3%	20.0%	84.5%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	94.3%	20.0%	84.5%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	94.3%	20.0%	84.5%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T11:25:17+00:00	94.3%	60.8%	99.8%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	94.3%	60.8%	99.8%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	94.3%	60.8%	99.8%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	99.8%	60.8%	99.8%	60.5%	18.9%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	99.8%	60.8%	99.8%	60.6%	19.3%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	99.8%	61.4%	99.8%	60.6%	19.3%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	99.8%	61.4%	99.8%	60.6%	19.3%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	99.8%	61.4%	99.8%	60.6%	19.3%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	99.8%	61.4%	99.8%	60.6%	19.3%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	99.8%	61.4%	99.8%	60.6%	19.3%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	99.8%	61.4%	99.8%	60.6%	19.3%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	76.4%	61.4%	99.9%	92.6%	84.4%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	76.4%	61.4%	99.9%	92.6%	84.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	79.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	84%	73.4°F	9.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	67.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	66.1°F	9.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	64.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗