KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

84%

76%

61%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.7¢Risks 80.65u

EPSNO 19.4¢Risks 19.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.35u · EPS −19.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	53.5%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	46.9%	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	1.4%	90.7%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	83.4%	99.2%	9.3%	—	85.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.6%	22.1%	22.6%	—	72.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	26.4%	17.9%	40.9%	—	69.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	99.9%	7.2%	86.9%	—	80.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	87.8%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	98.1%	76.8%	72.1%	—	85.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	91.2%	81.6%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	75.2%	35.4%	88.7%	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	55.4%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	77.0%	89.0%	60.0%	—	91.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	59.4%	79.7%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	60.6%	80.3%	67.8%	—	72.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	58.0%	76.6%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	83.0%	96.2%	70.6%	—	78.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	48.9%	51.1%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	81.0%	83.1%	86.3%	81.0%	79.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	85.9%	98.4%	4.2%	—	87.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	83.2%	92.0%	74.0%	86.0%	82.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	54.8%	96.5%	68.5%	—	88.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	84.9%	95.1%	93.3%	97.0%	94.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	76.2%	88.5%	89.7%	—	97.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	88.0%	98.7%	92.6%	93.0%	95.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	87.5%	99.0%	94.6%	—	89.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	69.5%	99.5%	93.2%	82.8%	90.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	70.2%	99.6%	96.3%	—	99.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	46.8%	99.9%	98.5%	78.6%	94.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	77.2%	99.5%	93.2%	—	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	79.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	84%	73.4°F	9.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	67.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	66.1°F	9.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	64.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗