KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

65%

64%

62%

39%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.2¢Risks 53.15u

ICONNO 46.8¢Risks 46.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.85u · ICON −46.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	30.9%	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	23.9%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	0.2%	74.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	60.4%	95.5%	2.1%	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	97.1%	6.6%	6.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	8.1%	4.6%	16.0%	—	40.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	98.9%	1.2%	62.5%	—	52.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	63.6%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	89.2%	45.8%	40.1%	—	58.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	68.9%	51.7%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	42.2%	10.5%	62.9%	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	22.2%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	42.7%	61.8%	25.1%	—	66.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	23.8%	45.3%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	24.0%	45.1%	30.4%	—	35.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	21.1%	39.1%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	46.9%	77.3%	31.2%	—	39.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	13.8%	15.0%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	41.3%	44.5%	50.0%	41.3%	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	47.8%	84.6%	0.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	41.9%	59.2%	30.0%	46.5%	40.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	13.9%	72.7%	23.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	41.3%	65.8%	59.9%	73.4%	64.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	28.0%	46.1%	48.7%	—	73.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	43.3%	80.9%	54.0%	55.4%	64.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	40.3%	82.7%	58.3%	—	44.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	17.2%	87.0%	51.4%	30.5%	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	16.2%	88.0%	60.5%	—	92.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	4.8%	91.7%	72.4%	21.4%	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	18.1%	81.9%	43.4%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	68.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	68.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	68.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	66.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 03:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗