KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

65%

64%

62%

39%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.2¢Risks 53.15u

ICONNO 46.8¢Risks 46.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.85u · ICON −46.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	50.0%	43.8%	99.3%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	50.0%	43.8%	99.3%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	50.0%	43.8%	99.3%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	50.0%	43.8%	95.6%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	50.0%	43.8%	95.6%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	50.0%	43.8%	95.6%	79.4%	72.6%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	99.6%	43.8%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	99.6%	43.8%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	99.6%	43.8%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	99.6%	43.8%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	99.6%	43.8%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	99.6%	43.8%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	99.6%	40.3%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	99.6%	40.3%	95.6%	98.6%	97.6%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	93.3%	40.4%	95.6%	98.6%	97.7%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	93.3%	40.4%	95.6%	98.6%	97.7%
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	58.1%	61.9%	78.6%	32.0%	92.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	58.1%	61.9%	78.6%	32.0%	92.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	58.1%	61.9%	64.5%	32.0%	92.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	58.1%	61.9%	64.5%	32.0%	92.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	58.1%	61.9%	64.5%	32.0%	92.6%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	65.2%	61.9%	64.5%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	65.2%	61.9%	64.5%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	65.2%	61.9%	64.5%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	65.2%	61.9%	64.5%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	65.2%	61.9%	64.5%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	65.2%	62.4%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	65.2%	62.4%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	65.2%	62.4%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	57.8%	62.4%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	57.8%	62.2%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00	57.8%	62.5%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	57.8%	62.5%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	57.8%	62.5%	65.7%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	57.8%	62.5%	74.9%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	57.8%	62.5%	74.9%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	57.8%	62.5%	74.9%	38.2%	92.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	74.9%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	74.9%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	74.9%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	74.9%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	74.9%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	61.1%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	84.0%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	87.6%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	87.6%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	69.9%	62.5%	87.6%	50.0%	56.6%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	70.3%	62.5%	87.6%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	70.3%	62.5%	87.6%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	70.3%	62.5%	87.6%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	70.3%	62.5%	87.6%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	70.3%	62.5%	87.6%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	70.3%	62.5%	78.0%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	70.3%	70.6%	78.0%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	70.3%	70.6%	78.0%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	69.5%	70.6%	78.0%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	69.5%	70.5%	78.0%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:38+00:00	69.5%	70.5%	78.0%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	78.0%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	37.7%	28.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	82.9%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	69.5%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	68.7%	68.3%	74.3%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-13T08:02:40+00:00	66.1%	68.3%	74.3%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	66.1%	68.3%	74.3%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	66.1%	68.3%	74.3%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	66.1%	68.3%	74.3%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	66.1%	68.6%	78.9%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	66.1%	68.6%	78.9%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	66.1%	68.6%	78.9%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	66.1%	68.6%	78.9%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	70.5%	68.6%	79.0%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	70.5%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	70.5%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	70.5%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	70.5%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	70.5%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	70.5%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	37.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	79.0%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	79.0%	62.4%	38.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	67.4%	62.4%	38.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	67.4%	62.4%	38.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	68.8%	64.1%	67.4%	62.4%	38.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	65.2%	64.1%	67.4%	62.4%	38.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	65.2%	64.1%	67.4%	62.4%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	68.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	68.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	68.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	66.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 03:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗