KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

68%

50%

22%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.15u

ICONNO 53.8¢Risks 53.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.85u · ICON −53.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	25.9%	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	19.3%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	0.1%	68.2%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	53.5%	93.5%	1.4%	—	56.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	95.6%	4.6%	4.8%	—	37.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	5.6%	3.0%	11.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	98.2%	0.7%	54.8%	—	44.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	55.7%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	84.8%	37.7%	32.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	61.0%	43.2%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	33.8%	7.0%	54.4%	—	33.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	16.1%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	33.9%	52.8%	18.4%	—	57.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	17.1%	36.1%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	17.1%	35.7%	22.5%	—	27.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	14.6%	29.9%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	36.9%	68.8%	22.7%	—	30.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	8.8%	9.6%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	31.1%	34.1%	39.2%	31.1%	29.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	36.7%	76.9%	0.1%	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	31.0%	47.7%	20.7%	35.2%	30.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	61.9%	15.2%	—	38.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	29.8%	53.7%	47.5%	62.3%	52.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	18.2%	33.7%	36.1%	—	61.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	30.7%	70.5%	40.7%	42.0%	51.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	27.6%	72.4%	44.4%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	9.5%	77.8%	37.2%	19.1%	30.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	8.6%	78.7%	45.5%	—	85.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	2.0%	83.9%	57.9%	11.7%	34.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	9.2%	69.0%	28.1%	—	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	70.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	69.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗