KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

68%

50%

22%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.15u

ICONNO 53.8¢Risks 53.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.85u · ICON −53.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00	90.5%	36.6%	93.4%	97.9%	96.8%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	90.5%	36.6%	93.4%	97.9%	96.8%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	90.5%	36.6%	96.2%	97.9%	96.8%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	90.5%	36.6%	96.2%	97.9%	96.8%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	90.5%	36.6%	96.2%	97.9%	96.8%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	90.5%	36.6%	96.2%	97.9%	96.8%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	42.5%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	29.1%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	29.1%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	29.1%	36.6%	96.2%	25.7%	24.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	55.8%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	55.8%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	55.8%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	55.8%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	55.8%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	55.8%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	66.6%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	66.6%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	66.6%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	66.6%	53.3%	55.1%	52.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	66.6%	53.3%	55.1%	73.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	66.6%	70.1%	75.3%	73.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	66.6%	70.1%	75.3%	73.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	66.6%	70.1%	75.3%	73.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	60.9%	70.1%	75.3%	73.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	60.9%	70.0%	75.3%	73.2%	20.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00	60.9%	70.1%	75.3%	73.2%	20.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	60.9%	70.1%	75.3%	73.2%	20.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	60.9%	70.1%	75.3%	73.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	60.9%	70.1%	82.2%	73.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	60.9%	70.1%	82.2%	73.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	60.9%	70.1%	82.2%	73.9%	20.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	82.2%	68.2%	22.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	82.2%	68.2%	22.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	82.2%	68.2%	22.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	82.2%	68.2%	22.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	82.2%	68.2%	22.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	82.2%	68.2%	22.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	59.5%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	47.0%	70.1%	59.5%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	59.5%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	59.5%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	59.5%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	59.5%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	59.5%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	68.4%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	68.4%	67.6%	22.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	68.4%	67.6%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	70.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	69.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗