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KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 18:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
10%
WN2
7%
AIFS
7%
EPS
6%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.9¢Risks 1.23u
VS
ICONNO 95.1¢Risks 23.77u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.77u · ICON −23.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 66.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 75.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.8% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.8% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0009-30 06:0010-08 00:0010-15 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:000.4%————12.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:0015.9%————7.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:007.7%————9.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:002.9%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:003.6%—54.8%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0024.0%————8.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0060.5%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0030.1%————8.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0032.5%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:002.5%————10.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0012.8%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0035.9%————8.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0047.3%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:001.5%————10.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.3%———
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:003.5%————7.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:005.9%—4.7%——6.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.8%————1.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.5%—33.8%———
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.2%—2.5%——0.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%———
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.7%—0.0%——1.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.2%—22.7%———
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0011.4%0.0%23.8%——7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0050.7%—32.0%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0086.3%12.6%61.1%0.0%—14.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.5%—33.3%———
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0063.6%66.3%0.1%0.2%—5.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0022.1%—0.5%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.2%0.1%0.6%—3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.3%—2.4%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.0%75.8%0.0%10.0%—6.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:001.7%9.9%0.4%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:002.8%33.0%3.8%2.7%—7.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.9%11.1%4.7%——0.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.2%2.5%0.1%7.7%—2.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.5%3.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.6%2.1%6.1%0.6%—7.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.1%0.4%2.2%——1.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.4%1.9%0.7%—1.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.7%0.2%1.1%——1.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.6%1.6%9.4%0.5%—1.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%0.1%——0.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.8%1.0%1.4%0.8%0.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.3%1.0%10.7%0.0%—1.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.5%1.8%0.2%0.8%0.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%3.5%0.1%—0.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%1.8%1.2%3.0%1.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.4%0.4%—2.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%3.5%0.5%0.5%1.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%3.2%0.5%—0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%3.7%0.2%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%3.2%0.3%—5.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%3.7%0.5%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES10%70.8°F3.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend8%70.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%71.2°F2.9°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
AIFS Single7%69.6°F4.0°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%70.3°F3.4°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast2%69.0°F3.1°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending
ICON<1%65.6°F3.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗