KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 4.9¢Risks 1.23u

ICONNO 95.1¢Risks 23.77u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.77u · ICON −23.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T07:38:13+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	10.7%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	10.7%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	10.7%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	10.7%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	28.3%	0.2%	10.7%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T11:25:17+00:00	28.3%	14.8%	70.1%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	28.3%	14.8%	70.1%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	28.3%	14.8%	70.1%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.3%	1.7%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	76.9%	14.8%	70.1%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	70.1%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	70.1%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	70.1%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	70.1%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	70.1%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-08T23:32:44+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	96.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T03:18:50+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	79.8%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	53.2%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	53.2%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	7.5%	14.8%	53.2%	33.0%	41.5%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	87.6%	14.8%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	87.6%	14.8%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	87.6%	14.8%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	87.6%	14.8%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	87.6%	14.8%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	87.6%	14.8%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	87.6%	11.0%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	87.6%	11.0%	53.2%	83.5%	79.5%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	49.2%	11.1%	53.2%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	49.2%	11.1%	53.2%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T15:27:19+00:00	49.2%	11.5%	53.2%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	49.2%	11.5%	53.2%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	49.2%	11.5%	58.8%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	49.2%	11.5%	58.8%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	49.2%	11.5%	58.8%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	49.2%	11.5%	58.8%	83.5%	79.9%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	6.5%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T04:16:37+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	58.8%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	3.0%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	4.4%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	6.2%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	6.2%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	6.2%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	6.2%	11.5%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	6.2%	29.9%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	6.2%	29.9%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T12:34:19+00:00	6.2%	29.9%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	6.2%	29.9%	4.4%	4.3%	84.8%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	9.9%	30.0%	4.5%	4.3%	85.1%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	9.9%	29.8%	4.5%	4.3%	85.1%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00	9.9%	29.7%	4.5%	4.3%	85.1%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	9.9%	29.7%	4.5%	4.3%	85.1%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	9.9%	29.7%	6.6%	4.3%	85.1%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	9.9%	29.7%	6.6%	4.3%	85.1%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	9.9%	29.7%	6.6%	4.3%	85.1%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	6.6%	4.3%	53.4%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	6.6%	4.3%	53.4%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	6.6%	4.3%	53.4%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	6.6%	4.3%	53.4%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	6.6%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	15.3%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	11.7%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	5.4%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	5.4%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	7.6%	29.7%	5.4%	3.2%	53.4%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	8.9%	29.7%	5.4%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	8.9%	29.7%	5.4%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	8.9%	29.7%	5.4%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	8.9%	29.7%	5.4%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	8.9%	29.7%	5.4%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	8.9%	23.1%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	8.9%	23.1%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	8.9%	23.1%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	6.1%	23.1%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	6.1%	23.4%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00	6.1%	22.8%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	6.1%	22.8%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	6.1%	22.8%	4.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	6.1%	22.8%	7.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	6.1%	22.8%	7.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	6.1%	22.8%	7.0%	2.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	7.0%	5.5%	6.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	7.0%	5.5%	6.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	7.0%	5.5%	6.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	7.0%	5.5%	6.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	7.0%	5.5%	6.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	7.3%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	12.4%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	16.0%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	16.0%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	11.2%	22.8%	16.0%	5.5%	6.7%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	9.3%	22.8%	16.0%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	9.3%	22.8%	16.0%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	9.3%	22.8%	16.0%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	9.3%	22.8%	16.0%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	9.3%	22.8%	16.0%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	9.3%	22.8%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	9.3%	5.2%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	9.3%	5.2%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	8.9%	5.2%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	8.9%	5.3%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T15:26:38+00:00	8.9%	5.3%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	1.8%	0.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	7.7%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	8.9%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	8.6%	5.0%	4.3%	9.3%	2.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	9.1%	6.4%	4.3%	10.4%	0.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	9.1%	6.4%	4.3%	10.4%	0.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	9.1%	6.4%	4.3%	10.4%	0.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	6.8%	6.4%	7.0%	9.6%	0.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	6.8%	6.4%	7.0%	9.6%	0.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	6.8%	6.4%	7.0%	9.6%	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	10%	70.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	71.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	70.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗