KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

96%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 96.7¢Risks 24.18u

EPSNO 3.3¢Risks 0.82u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +0.82u · EPS −0.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:16:37+00:00	13.7%	56.9%	89.6%	46.2%	56.1%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	13.7%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	56.1%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	13.7%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	56.1%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	13.7%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	56.1%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	13.7%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	56.1%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	86.4%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	86.4%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	86.4%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	86.4%	56.9%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	86.4%	54.3%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	86.4%	54.3%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T12:34:19+00:00	86.4%	54.3%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	86.4%	54.3%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	91.1%	54.2%	65.8%	46.2%	99.3%
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	44.7%	54.3%	78.7%	35.2%	91.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	44.7%	54.3%	78.7%	35.2%	91.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	44.7%	54.3%	43.9%	35.2%	91.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	44.7%	54.3%	43.9%	35.2%	91.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	44.7%	54.3%	43.9%	35.2%	91.0%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	90.8%	54.3%	43.9%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	90.8%	54.3%	43.9%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	90.8%	54.3%	43.9%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	90.8%	54.3%	43.9%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	90.8%	54.3%	43.9%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	90.8%	57.6%	84.5%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	90.8%	57.6%	84.5%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	90.8%	57.6%	84.5%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	80.5%	57.6%	84.5%	36.4%	91.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	80.4%	57.5%	84.4%	36.4%	90.8%
2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00	80.4%	58.2%	84.4%	36.4%	90.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	80.4%	58.2%	84.4%	36.4%	90.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	80.4%	58.2%	84.4%	36.4%	90.8%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	80.4%	58.2%	85.6%	36.4%	90.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	80.4%	58.2%	85.6%	36.4%	90.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	80.4%	58.2%	85.6%	36.4%	90.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.6%	76.7%	88.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.6%	76.7%	88.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.6%	76.7%	88.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.6%	76.7%	88.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.6%	76.7%	88.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	39.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	85.0%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	91.2%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	91.2%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	43.5%	58.2%	91.2%	76.7%	88.6%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	46.5%	58.2%	91.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	46.5%	58.2%	91.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	46.5%	58.2%	91.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	46.5%	58.2%	91.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	46.5%	58.2%	91.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	46.5%	58.2%	85.3%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	46.5%	65.9%	85.3%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	46.5%	65.9%	85.3%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	85.2%	65.9%	85.3%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	85.2%	65.8%	85.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:38+00:00	85.2%	65.8%	85.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	85.2%	64.7%	85.2%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	85.2%	64.7%	97.0%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	85.2%	64.7%	97.0%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	85.2%	64.7%	97.0%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	85.2%	64.7%	97.0%	61.8%	25.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	88.0%	64.7%	97.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	88.0%	64.7%	97.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	88.0%	64.7%	97.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	88.0%	64.7%	97.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	88.0%	64.7%	93.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	88.0%	64.7%	93.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	88.0%	64.7%	93.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	87.9%	64.7%	93.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	90.7%	64.7%	93.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	90.7%	64.7%	93.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	90.7%	64.7%	93.0%	84.1%	50.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	95.5%	64.2%	98.6%	85.9%	94.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	95.5%	64.2%	98.6%	85.9%	94.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	95.5%	64.2%	98.7%	85.9%	94.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	95.5%	64.2%	98.7%	85.9%	94.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	95.5%	64.2%	98.7%	85.9%	94.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	98.7%	85.9%	92.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	98.7%	85.9%	92.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	98.7%	85.9%	92.5%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	98.7%	85.9%	92.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	98.7%	96.5%	92.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	94.3%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:30+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	94.0%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	92.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	96.3%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	96.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	96.3%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	96.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	96.3%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	96.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	96.3%	64.2%	97.7%	96.5%	96.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	96.3%	64.2%	97.7%	99.9%	96.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	96.3%	93.6%	99.7%	99.9%	96.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	96.3%	93.6%	99.7%	99.9%	96.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	96.3%	93.6%	99.7%	99.9%	96.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	96.1%	93.6%	99.7%	99.9%	96.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	99.7%	99.9%	96.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	97%	72.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	72.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	72.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	68.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗