KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

96%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 96.7¢Risks 24.18u

EPSNO 3.3¢Risks 0.82u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +0.82u · EPS −0.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	98.1%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	98.1%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	87.2%	97.3%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	30.5%	90.1%	4.7%	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	99.3%	78.0%	24.9%	—	46.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	86.7%	67.7%	7.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	60.3%	90.0%	14.0%	—	50.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	7.6%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	82.7%	61.5%	14.3%	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	11.1%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	15.1%	60.4%	86.9%	—	63.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	83.9%	59.8%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	35.6%	69.5%	85.1%	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	89.6%	68.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	91.4%	77.5%	79.7%	—	71.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	89.5%	82.3%	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	90.1%	80.3%	87.7%	—	85.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	93.2%	95.8%	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	97.1%	80.2%	88.1%	—	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	97.3%	98.9%	86.5%	—	99.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	99.2%	99.5%	89.0%	98.4%	99.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	98.3%	86.8%	92.2%	—	98.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	98.2%	89.4%	89.4%	96.5%	99.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	99.5%	87.8%	99.4%	—	98.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	98.7%	90.5%	98.4%	98.6%	97.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	98.4%	90.8%	96.0%	—	96.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	99.0%	92.7%	96.3%	97.3%	97.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.2%	95.2%	96.8%	—	97.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	99.8%	98.2%	98.4%	99.8%	99.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	0.2%	3.1%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	97%	72.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	72.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	72.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	68.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗