KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

95%

86%

86%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

EPSNO 8.3¢Risks 4.13u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.13u · EPS −4.13u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	81.3%	51.4%	82.6%	72.6%	33.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	81.3%	51.4%	85.2%	72.6%	33.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	81.3%	51.4%	85.2%	72.6%	33.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	81.3%	51.4%	85.2%	72.6%	33.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	81.3%	51.4%	85.2%	72.6%	33.8%
2026-10-13T08:02:40+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	85.2%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	85.2%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	85.2%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	86.2%	51.4%	85.2%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	86.2%	51.7%	94.5%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	86.2%	51.7%	94.5%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	86.2%	51.7%	94.5%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	86.2%	51.7%	94.5%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	89.1%	51.7%	94.5%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	89.1%	48.4%	94.5%	73.4%	86.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00	89.9%	85.7%	98.1%	99.5%	90.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	89.9%	85.7%	98.1%	99.5%	90.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	89.9%	85.7%	98.1%	99.5%	90.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	89.9%	85.7%	98.6%	99.5%	90.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	89.9%	85.7%	98.6%	99.5%	90.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	89.9%	85.7%	98.6%	99.5%	90.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	84.3%	85.7%	98.6%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	84.3%	85.7%	98.6%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	84.3%	85.7%	98.6%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	84.3%	85.7%	98.6%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	84.3%	85.7%	98.6%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	84.3%	85.7%	98.6%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	84.3%	85.8%	97.7%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	84.3%	85.8%	97.7%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	86.0%	85.8%	97.7%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	86.0%	85.8%	97.7%	97.4%	95.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	86.0%	85.8%	97.7%	97.4%	95.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	95%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	72.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗