KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

95%

86%

86%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

EPSNO 8.3¢Risks 4.13u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.13u · EPS −4.13u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	96.1%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	96.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	78.7%	94.4%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	19.4%	82.5%	2.1%	—	40.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	98.2%	65.7%	14.8%	—	32.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	76.6%	53.0%	3.5%	—	36.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	44.4%	81.1%	6.9%	—	35.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	3.3%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	70.0%	45.0%	6.9%	—	62.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	4.9%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	7.0%	43.0%	75.2%	—	46.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	70.6%	42.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	20.3%	51.8%	71.8%	—	45.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	78.3%	50.0%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	81.0%	60.6%	63.4%	—	52.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	77.4%	66.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	78.1%	63.1%	74.1%	—	70.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	83.1%	88.4%	—	—	89.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	91.0%	61.8%	73.6%	—	96.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	91.3%	95.8%	70.4%	—	97.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	96.5%	97.8%	74.0%	93.9%	96.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	93.4%	69.6%	79.2%	—	93.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	92.9%	73.4%	73.4%	88.2%	96.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	97.4%	69.8%	96.8%	—	94.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	93.9%	73.9%	93.0%	93.5%	91.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	92.4%	73.5%	85.3%	—	87.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	94.5%	76.6%	85.4%	88.5%	89.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	94.8%	81.9%	86.4%	—	88.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	98.2%	90.4%	91.1%	98.2%	93.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	95%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	72.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗