KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

44%

44%

28%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.6¢Risks 39.65u

AIFSNO 60.3¢Risks 60.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.35u · AIFS −60.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	39.4%	52.5%	76.9%	67.6%	79.6%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	39.4%	43.2%	76.9%	67.6%	79.6%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	39.4%	43.2%	76.9%	67.6%	79.6%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	59.9%	43.2%	76.9%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	59.9%	43.2%	76.9%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T15:27:19+00:00	59.9%	44.0%	76.9%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	59.9%	44.0%	76.9%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	59.9%	44.0%	74.2%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	59.9%	44.0%	74.2%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	59.9%	44.0%	74.2%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	59.9%	44.0%	74.2%	67.6%	79.5%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	73.5%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	5.1%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	5.1%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	5.1%	44.0%	74.2%	28.5%	43.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	71.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.1°F	9.2°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	67.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	64.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	59.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗