KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

44%

44%

28%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.6¢Risks 39.65u

AIFSNO 60.3¢Risks 60.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.35u · AIFS −60.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	94.6%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	94.3%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	73.5%	92.3%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	14.9%	77.6%	1.4%	—	33.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	97.2%	58.7%	10.9%	—	26.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	70.4%	45.4%	2.2%	—	29.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	36.7%	75.2%	4.7%	—	28.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	2.0%	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	62.3%	36.9%	4.5%	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	3.1%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	4.5%	34.6%	67.8%	—	37.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	62.4%	33.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	14.4%	42.7%	63.6%	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	70.8%	40.6%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	73.7%	51.0%	53.9%	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	69.2%	57.0%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	69.7%	53.1%	65.1%	—	61.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	75.5%	82.4%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	85.7%	51.1%	63.9%	—	94.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	85.9%	92.5%	60.0%	—	95.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	93.5%	95.8%	63.7%	89.5%	92.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	88.6%	58.4%	69.6%	—	88.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	87.6%	62.3%	62.3%	80.9%	92.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	94.7%	57.7%	93.6%	—	89.1%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	88.7%	61.9%	87.4%	88.0%	84.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	86.1%	61.0%	75.8%	—	78.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	89.2%	64.2%	75.5%	79.8%	80.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	89.5%	70.2%	76.4%	—	79.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	95.6%	81.9%	82.9%	95.6%	87.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	71.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.1°F	9.2°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	67.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	64.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	59.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗