KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

26%

19%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 19.8¢Risks 19.75u

EPSNO 80.2¢Risks 80.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +80.25u · EPS −80.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	69.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	67.0%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	28.8%	59.4%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.1%	31.7%	0.0%	—	4.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	73.4%	14.4%	0.6%	—	2.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	21.1%	7.3%	0.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	4.1%	23.6%	0.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.0%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.5%	3.6%	0.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.7%	14.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	10.3%	2.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.4%	3.6%	10.2%	—	2.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	13.2%	2.9%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	14.2%	4.6%	5.4%	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	10.5%	5.7%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	9.8%	4.2%	7.8%	—	6.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	17.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	19.8%	2.9%	5.9%	—	36.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	18.3%	29.6%	4.2%	—	36.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	30.0%	37.4%	4.5%	21.5%	28.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	18.3%	2.9%	5.5%	—	17.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	15.1%	3.0%	3.0%	9.5%	23.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	25.9%	1.9%	22.8%	—	15.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.7%	2.0%	11.3%	12.0%	8.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.6%	1.5%	4.0%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	9.5%	1.5%	3.2%	4.4%	4.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.0%	1.7%	2.7%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.2%	3.1%	3.4%	14.2%	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	37%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	73.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗