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KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
90%
WN2
75%
HRES
74%
AIFS
72%
ICON
57%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 73.3¢Risks 73.30u
VS
ICONNO 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.70u · ICON −26.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.1% · 2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.1% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.1% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:0010-11 15:1110-11 21:1310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:0024.8%89.8%37.1%72.9%73.6%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:0024.8%89.8%37.1%72.9%73.6%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:0024.8%89.8%37.1%72.9%73.6%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:0024.8%89.8%45.6%72.9%73.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:0024.8%89.8%45.6%72.9%73.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:0024.8%89.8%45.6%72.9%73.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:0056.0%89.8%45.6%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:0056.0%89.8%45.6%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:0056.0%89.8%45.6%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:0056.0%89.8%45.6%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:0056.0%89.8%45.6%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:0056.0%89.8%75.2%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:0056.0%89.8%75.2%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:0056.0%89.8%75.2%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:0072.1%89.8%75.2%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:0072.1%89.8%75.2%73.9%56.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:0072.1%89.8%75.2%73.9%56.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble90%59.0°F5.1°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%55.6°F4.5°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
IFS HRES74%56.7°F6.6°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
AIFS Single72%55.6°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
ICON57%53.7°F7.0°F2026-10-11 12:00Pending
NWS forecast53%53.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 14:00Pending
National Blend53%53.0°F6.7°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗