KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

75%

74%

72%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.3¢Risks 73.30u

ICONNO 26.7¢Risks 26.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.70u · ICON −26.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	99.4%	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	97.9%	—	—	92.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	89.6%	—	—	87.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	87.4%	—	—	89.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	99.8%	90.7%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	61.8%	84.7%	55.6%	—	78.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	63.6%	83.5%	—	67.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	33.0%	17.4%	74.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	33.7%	19.5%	35.2%	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	39.5%	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	80.5%	19.5%	55.8%	—	51.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	68.2%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	43.0%	25.5%	23.4%	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	53.6%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	44.5%	55.5%	33.9%	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	55.7%	63.0%	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	75.3%	42.3%	58.7%	—	53.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	74.3%	40.1%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	91.0%	55.1%	51.0%	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	76.3%	28.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	79.4%	23.0%	25.5%	70.8%	46.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	81.7%	23.1%	24.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	77.6%	34.1%	34.1%	—	33.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	85.5%	48.8%	34.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	74.4%	55.0%	34.2%	71.3%	21.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	81.8%	56.4%	28.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	79.0%	60.6%	27.3%	63.2%	22.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	74.7%	58.3%	25.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	70.7%	64.2%	25.6%	52.9%	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	16.2%	32.5%	24.8%	—	17.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	20.3%	37.6%	27.6%	16.1%	21.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	40.2%	37.0%	32.4%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	59.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	55.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	56.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	55.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	57%	53.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	53.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	53.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗