KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

86%

84%

57%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.30u · ICON −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:38+00:00	82.7%	66.6%	94.7%	86.4%	80.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	82.7%	65.3%	94.7%	86.4%	80.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	82.7%	65.3%	95.6%	86.4%	80.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	82.7%	65.3%	95.6%	86.4%	80.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	82.7%	65.3%	95.6%	86.4%	80.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	82.7%	65.3%	95.6%	86.4%	80.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.6%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.6%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.6%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.6%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.8%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.8%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.8%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	83.6%	65.3%	95.8%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	87.1%	65.3%	95.8%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	87.1%	65.3%	95.8%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	87.1%	65.3%	95.8%	84.3%	74.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	92.3%	70.1%	97.9%	81.0%	63.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	92.3%	70.1%	97.9%	81.0%	63.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	92.3%	70.1%	98.3%	81.0%	63.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	92.3%	70.1%	98.3%	81.0%	63.3%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	94.5%	70.1%	98.3%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	94.5%	70.1%	98.3%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	94.5%	70.1%	98.3%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	94.5%	70.1%	98.3%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	94.5%	70.1%	98.3%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	94.5%	84.6%	98.6%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	94.5%	84.6%	98.6%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	94.5%	84.6%	98.6%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	94.5%	84.6%	98.6%	86.5%	56.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	94.5%	84.1%	98.6%	86.5%	56.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	62.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	62.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	60.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	59.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	57.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗