KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

86%

84%

57%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.30u · ICON −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	13.5%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	3.0%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	49.3%	13.7%	11.2%	—	65.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	67.0%	57.3%	60.8%	—	68.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	58.3%	54.6%	65.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	74.5%	71.2%	69.2%	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	3.0%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	81.0%	84.8%	71.4%	—	68.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	69.7%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	69.3%	77.9%	50.9%	—	48.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	71.3%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	50.0%	76.3%	50.9%	—	49.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	62.1%	74.7%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	64.3%	68.7%	51.0%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	61.8%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	67.9%	68.8%	53.1%	—	69.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	71.2%	58.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	69.9%	52.2%	67.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	66.4%	48.9%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	66.9%	61.5%	74.0%	—	74.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	69.6%	65.3%	75.6%	—	78.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	72.4%	72.4%	76.4%	59.9%	79.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	70.9%	78.1%	78.1%	—	80.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	76.0%	80.9%	68.1%	68.1%	78.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	83.6%	86.1%	58.3%	—	81.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	88.5%	85.4%	69.5%	76.6%	84.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	88.0%	86.4%	68.9%	—	78.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	84.8%	87.5%	57.9%	71.0%	76.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	94.2%	91.4%	78.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	62.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	62.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	60.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	59.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	57.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗