KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

68%

59%

37%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

ICONNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.70u · ICON −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	7.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	35.6%	7.4%	5.8%	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	52.9%	42.7%	46.4%	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	43.2%	39.4%	50.8%	—	52.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	60.3%	56.4%	54.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	1.1%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	67.8%	72.8%	55.8%	—	52.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	53.4%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	52.6%	62.9%	33.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	54.5%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	32.2%	60.0%	33.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	43.4%	57.5%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	45.1%	50.0%	32.1%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	42.0%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	47.9%	49.0%	33.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	51.1%	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	48.9%	31.1%	46.7%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	44.4%	27.6%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	44.2%	38.5%	52.3%	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	46.4%	41.6%	53.6%	—	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	48.8%	48.8%	53.7%	35.4%	57.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	46.1%	55.1%	55.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	51.3%	58.0%	42.0%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	61.0%	65.0%	31.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	68.2%	62.8%	41.4%	50.0%	61.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	66.2%	63.3%	39.5%	—	51.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	59.4%	63.9%	27.6%	40.6%	46.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	77.2%	70.5%	48.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	63.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	62.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	60.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	59.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	57.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗