KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

68%

59%

37%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

ICONNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.70u · ICON −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:17+00:00	77.4%	49.2%	90.2%	75.8%	64.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	77.4%	49.2%	91.3%	75.8%	64.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	77.4%	49.2%	91.3%	75.8%	64.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	77.4%	49.2%	91.3%	75.8%	64.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	77.4%	49.2%	91.3%	75.8%	64.4%
2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00	74.3%	49.2%	91.3%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	74.3%	49.2%	91.3%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	74.3%	49.2%	91.3%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	74.3%	49.2%	91.3%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	74.3%	59.2%	81.8%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	74.3%	59.2%	81.8%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	74.3%	59.2%	81.8%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	74.3%	59.2%	81.8%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	72.8%	59.2%	81.6%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	81.6%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	81.6%	76.7%	74.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	81.6%	76.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	76.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	76.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	76.3%	74.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	76.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	76.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	76.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	76.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.3%	69.6%	79.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	72.8%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:30+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	65.7%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	79.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	65.2%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	65.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	65.2%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	65.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	65.2%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	65.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	65.2%	54.5%	86.8%	69.8%	65.3%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	65.2%	54.5%	86.8%	51.6%	65.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	65.2%	30.4%	83.3%	51.6%	65.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	65.2%	30.4%	83.3%	51.6%	65.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	65.2%	30.4%	83.3%	51.6%	65.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	75.0%	30.4%	83.3%	51.6%	65.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	75.0%	30.4%	83.3%	51.6%	66.1%
2026-10-15T04:01:48+00:00	78.9%	29.4%	82.7%	54.0%	47.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	78.9%	29.4%	82.7%	54.0%	47.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	78.9%	29.4%	85.9%	54.0%	47.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	78.9%	29.4%	85.9%	54.0%	47.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	78.9%	29.4%	85.9%	54.0%	47.5%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	77.2%	29.4%	85.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	77.2%	29.4%	85.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	77.2%	29.4%	85.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	77.2%	29.4%	85.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	77.2%	29.4%	85.9%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	77.2%	29.4%	88.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	77.2%	39.3%	88.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	77.2%	39.3%	88.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	83.1%	39.4%	88.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	83.1%	39.4%	88.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:43+00:00	83.1%	43.7%	88.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	83.1%	43.7%	88.2%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	83.1%	43.7%	93.1%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	83.1%	43.7%	93.1%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	83.1%	43.7%	93.1%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	83.1%	43.7%	93.1%	50.9%	52.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	78.0%	43.7%	93.1%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	78.0%	43.7%	93.1%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	78.0%	43.7%	93.1%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	78.0%	43.7%	93.1%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	78.0%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	78.0%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	78.0%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	89.9%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	76.6%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	76.9%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	76.9%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	76.9%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	76.9%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	76.9%	43.7%	87.6%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	87.1%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	87.1%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	87.1%	58.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	81.2%	38.9%	87.1%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	81.2%	39.1%	87.1%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	81.2%	43.2%	87.1%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	81.2%	43.0%	87.1%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	81.2%	43.0%	87.1%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	81.2%	43.0%	90.2%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	81.2%	43.0%	90.2%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	81.2%	43.0%	90.2%	51.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	90.2%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	90.2%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	90.2%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	90.2%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	90.2%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	91.7%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	91.7%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	80.5%	43.0%	91.7%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	82.5%	43.0%	91.7%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	82.5%	43.0%	91.7%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	82.5%	43.0%	91.7%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	82.5%	43.0%	91.7%	65.2%	41.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:26+00:00	86.2%	59.4%	93.5%	71.4%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	86.2%	59.4%	93.5%	71.4%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	86.2%	59.4%	93.5%	71.4%	34.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	86.2%	59.4%	93.5%	71.4%	34.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	86.2%	59.4%	93.5%	71.4%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	86.2%	59.4%	93.5%	71.4%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	85.1%	59.4%	93.5%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	85.1%	59.4%	93.5%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	85.1%	59.4%	93.5%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	85.1%	59.4%	93.5%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	85.1%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	85.1%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	85.1%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	85.1%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.0%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.9%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.9%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.9%	67.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	86.2%	59.1%	93.9%	67.6%	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	63.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	62.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	60.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	59.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	57.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗