KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PALow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

44%

40%

18%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

EPSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.10u · EPS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	25.4%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	37.8%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	79.7%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	38.2%	81.6%	3.5%	—	20.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	29.1%	64.3%	8.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	14.6%	57.6%	5.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	12.7%	54.0%	10.4%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	3.4%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	19.5%	25.8%	13.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	42.4%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	35.4%	26.9%	20.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	50.9%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	39.1%	38.2%	10.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	54.7%	45.3%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	46.1%	47.1%	17.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	51.0%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	46.9%	45.9%	9.4%	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	44.7%	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	43.5%	52.2%	8.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	40.0%	53.4%	19.0%	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	43.0%	44.2%	11.0%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	40.5%	42.8%	14.5%	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	35.4%	34.2%	11.8%	73.4%	23.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	42.3%	30.2%	18.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	39.4%	27.3%	11.3%	82.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	33.8%	28.8%	14.7%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	31.8%	25.6%	8.3%	75.5%	15.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	51.5%	23.6%	14.4%	—	38.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.7%	11.7%	16.1%	76.2%	51.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	31.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	33.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	40%	33.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	35.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	34.8°F	1.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	37.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗