KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PALow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

44%

40%

18%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

EPSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.10u · EPS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	65.2%	3.4%	45.6%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	65.2%	3.4%	45.6%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	65.2%	3.4%	45.6%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	65.2%	3.4%	45.6%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	65.2%	3.4%	45.6%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	65.2%	3.4%	43.2%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	65.2%	1.9%	43.2%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	65.2%	1.9%	43.2%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	43.2%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	43.2%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:43+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	43.2%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	43.2%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	42.3%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	42.3%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	42.3%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	56.8%	1.9%	42.3%	23.0%	46.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	42.3%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	42.3%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	42.3%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	42.3%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	46.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	63.4%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	47.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	64.7%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	64.7%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	64.7%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	64.7%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	64.7%	1.9%	48.1%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	64.7%	5.5%	53.2%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	64.7%	5.5%	53.2%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	64.7%	5.5%	53.2%	30.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	66.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	32.2%	43.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:17+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	53.2%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	51.1%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	67.7%	5.5%	51.1%	25.5%	43.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	65.3%	5.5%	51.1%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	65.3%	5.5%	51.1%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	65.3%	5.5%	51.1%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	65.3%	5.5%	51.1%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	65.3%	5.5%	51.1%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	65.3%	6.3%	54.8%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	65.3%	6.3%	54.8%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	65.3%	6.3%	54.8%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:26+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	53.6%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	53.6%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	53.6%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	53.6%	15.9%	35.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	53.6%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	53.6%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	53.6%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	53.6%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	69.7%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	54.8%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	44.0%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	44.0%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	44.0%	17.5%	40.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	67.5%	6.3%	44.0%	17.5%	40.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	31.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	33.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	40%	33.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	35.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	34.8°F	1.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	37.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗