KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

77%

68%

46%

21%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

ICONNO 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.40u · ICON −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	24.1%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	1.6%	62.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	30.5%	53.5%	1.6%	—	59.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	37.1%	40.6%	62.9%	—	62.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	53.0%	59.8%	59.1%	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	61.8%	57.1%	31.6%	—	52.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	0.1%	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	56.6%	60.7%	20.1%	—	37.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	45.7%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	60.4%	46.5%	33.8%	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	68.2%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	61.8%	51.8%	51.8%	—	60.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	69.1%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	56.8%	41.3%	54.9%	—	51.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	61.8%	39.1%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	69.7%	42.8%	51.0%	—	71.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	69.3%	50.0%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	64.9%	52.2%	44.5%	0.0%	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	67.5%	60.0%	0.0%	—	74.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	66.9%	62.6%	41.9%	39.6%	73.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	64.1%	63.0%	41.6%	—	72.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	72.4%	69.2%	37.7%	0.0%	74.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	63.9%	67.5%	39.8%	—	70.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	55.4%	68.1%	35.6%	35.6%	70.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	63.7%	71.2%	31.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	70.7%	76.6%	37.2%	51.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	68.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	67.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	65.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	62.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	54.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗