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KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
89%
HRES
77%
AIFS
68%
EPS
46%
ICON
21%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 54.6¢Risks 54.60u
VS
ICONNO 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.40u · ICON −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:0068.5%46.1%88.6%76.6%20.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:0068.5%46.1%88.6%76.6%20.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:0068.5%46.1%88.6%76.6%20.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:0068.5%46.1%88.6%76.6%20.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0068.5%46.1%88.6%76.6%20.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 289%68.9°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES77%67.1°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single68%65.2°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend53%63.0°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%62.0°F5.1°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
ICON21%54.4°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗