KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

70%

60%

30%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

ICONNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · ICON −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	19.3%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	1.1%	55.4%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	24.6%	46.5%	1.0%	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	30.4%	33.7%	55.8%	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	45.4%	52.3%	51.5%	—	54.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	54.0%	49.2%	24.8%	—	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	0.1%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	48.3%	52.5%	14.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	37.4%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	51.7%	37.9%	26.2%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	59.8%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	52.8%	42.7%	42.7%	—	51.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	60.3%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	47.1%	32.1%	45.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	52.0%	29.9%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	60.2%	33.0%	40.8%	—	62.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	59.5%	39.5%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	54.4%	41.3%	34.1%	0.0%	64.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	56.7%	48.9%	0.0%	—	64.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	55.8%	51.2%	31.0%	28.9%	62.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	52.4%	51.2%	30.4%	—	61.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	61.1%	57.4%	26.6%	0.0%	63.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	51.3%	55.1%	28.0%	—	59.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	42.0%	55.4%	24.0%	24.0%	58.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	50.0%	58.3%	20.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	57.2%	64.2%	24.5%	37.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	68.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	68.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	64.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗