KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

70%

60%

30%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

ICONNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · ICON −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	61.9%	38.4%	85.8%	71.5%	17.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	61.9%	53.8%	85.8%	71.5%	17.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	61.9%	53.8%	85.8%	71.5%	17.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	66.0%	53.8%	85.8%	71.5%	17.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	65.9%	53.8%	85.7%	71.5%	17.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:39+00:00	65.9%	53.8%	85.7%	71.5%	17.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	85.7%	71.5%	17.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	71.5%	17.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	71.5%	17.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	71.5%	17.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	71.5%	17.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	87.4%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	65.9%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T04:15:19+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	90.1%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	92.3%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	92.3%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	92.3%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	73.3%	51.9%	92.3%	73.6%	52.4%
2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00	71.4%	51.9%	92.3%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	71.4%	51.9%	92.3%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	71.4%	51.9%	92.3%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	71.4%	51.9%	92.3%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	71.4%	43.9%	90.9%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	71.4%	43.9%	90.9%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	71.4%	43.9%	90.9%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	71.4%	43.9%	90.9%	67.6%	54.0%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	73.3%	43.9%	90.9%	67.6%	54.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	90.9%	67.6%	54.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	90.9%	67.6%	54.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	90.9%	67.6%	54.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	90.1%	67.6%	54.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	90.1%	67.6%	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	73.3%	39.4%	90.1%	67.6%	54.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	90.1%	67.6%	66.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	90.1%	67.6%	66.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	90.1%	67.6%	66.5%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	90.1%	67.6%	66.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	90.1%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	76.9%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:30+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	79.1%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	66.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	85.8%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	70.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	85.8%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	70.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	85.8%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	70.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	85.8%	39.4%	93.6%	58.4%	70.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	85.8%	39.4%	93.6%	66.8%	70.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	85.8%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	70.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	85.8%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	70.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	85.8%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	70.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	84.4%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	70.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	84.3%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	69.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:02+00:00	84.3%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	69.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	84.3%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	69.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	84.3%	36.3%	91.3%	66.8%	69.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	84.3%	36.3%	85.2%	66.8%	69.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	84.3%	36.3%	85.2%	66.8%	69.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	84.3%	36.3%	85.2%	66.8%	69.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	85.2%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	85.2%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	85.2%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	85.2%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	85.2%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	85.2%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	86.3%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	85.2%	36.3%	86.3%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	86.3%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	86.3%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	86.3%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:48+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	86.3%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	86.3%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	92.4%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	92.4%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	86.6%	36.3%	92.4%	62.2%	65.7%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	78.9%	36.3%	92.4%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	78.9%	36.3%	92.4%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	78.9%	36.3%	92.4%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	78.9%	36.3%	92.4%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	78.9%	36.3%	92.4%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	78.9%	36.3%	94.1%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	78.9%	39.1%	94.1%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	78.9%	39.1%	94.1%	63.3%	65.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	91.2%	39.2%	94.1%	63.3%	65.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	91.2%	39.2%	94.1%	63.3%	65.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	85.2%	41.3%	94.1%	64.1%	66.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	85.2%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	66.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	85.2%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	66.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	85.2%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	66.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	83.1%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	83.1%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	83.1%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	83.1%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	83.1%	41.3%	93.7%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	83.1%	35.7%	93.5%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	83.1%	35.7%	93.5%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	83.1%	35.7%	93.5%	64.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	86.4%	35.7%	93.5%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	86.4%	35.8%	93.5%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	86.4%	38.9%	93.5%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	86.4%	38.9%	93.5%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	86.4%	38.9%	93.5%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	86.4%	38.9%	94.9%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	86.4%	38.9%	94.9%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	86.4%	38.9%	94.9%	57.1%	54.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	94.9%	57.1%	66.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	94.9%	57.1%	66.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	94.9%	57.1%	66.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	94.9%	57.1%	66.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	94.9%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:17+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	95.7%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	95.7%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	88.3%	38.9%	95.7%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	90.1%	38.9%	95.7%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	90.1%	38.9%	95.7%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	90.1%	38.9%	95.7%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	90.1%	38.9%	95.7%	76.3%	66.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:26+00:00	90.0%	60.0%	96.7%	77.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	90.0%	60.0%	96.7%	77.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	90.0%	60.0%	96.7%	77.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	90.0%	60.0%	96.7%	77.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	90.0%	60.0%	96.7%	77.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	90.0%	60.0%	96.7%	77.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	88.6%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	88.1%	60.0%	96.7%	72.9%	52.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	89.8%	60.0%	96.7%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	89.8%	60.0%	96.7%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	89.8%	60.0%	96.7%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	89.8%	60.0%	96.7%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	89.8%	56.7%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	89.8%	56.7%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	89.8%	56.7%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	89.8%	56.7%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	87.3%	56.6%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00	87.3%	56.6%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	74.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	96.3%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	87.3%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	95.4%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	96.8%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	96.8%	69.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	88.4%	60.2%	96.8%	69.6%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	68.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	68.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	64.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗