KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PALow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

25%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

EPSNO 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.60u · EPS −75.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	75.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	54.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	5.8%	12.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	4.0%	14.1%	8.5%	—	5.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	3.5%	3.3%	3.5%	—	5.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.4%	1.3%	2.5%	—	6.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	18.9%	4.9%	2.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	11.4%	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	27.9%	5.6%	3.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	28.1%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	25.5%	8.0%	2.7%	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	23.5%	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	18.4%	9.8%	4.8%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	22.4%	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	10.2%	14.2%	2.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	16.4%	17.0%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	11.8%	10.8%	5.5%	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	15.0%	9.2%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	11.9%	8.1%	4.0%	67.9%	5.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	12.3%	5.7%	2.9%	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	11.6%	4.8%	3.8%	74.0%	5.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	13.9%	4.5%	7.8%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	12.4%	4.3%	8.0%	20.8%	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	20.0%	3.5%	5.3%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	20.0%	3.2%	5.7%	85.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	21.1%	2.0%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	22.2%	1.1%	5.1%	78.8%	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	19.2%	1.3%	5.1%	—	7.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	39.1%	0.3%	2.2%	69.7%	21.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	49%	32.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	27%	35.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	34.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	35.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	37.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.0°F	1.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗