KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PALow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

25%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.4¢Risks 24.40u

EPSNO 75.6¢Risks 75.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.60u · EPS −75.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	42.8%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	42.8%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	42.8%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	42.8%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	53.6%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00	53.6%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	53.6%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	53.6%	0.0%	26.2%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	53.6%	0.0%	29.3%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	53.6%	0.0%	29.3%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	53.6%	0.0%	29.3%	3.1%	13.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	29.3%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	29.3%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	29.3%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	29.3%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	29.3%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	25.2%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	25.2%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	52.4%	0.0%	25.2%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	48.8%	0.0%	25.2%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	48.8%	0.0%	25.2%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	48.8%	0.0%	25.2%	4.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	48.8%	0.0%	25.2%	4.5%	22.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	49%	32.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	27%	35.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	34.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	35.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	37.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.0°F	1.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗