KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

51%

37%

33%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.70u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.30u · EPS −36.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	33.0%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	31.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	3.5%	54.0%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	47.2%	38.2%	3.6%	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	59.4%	33.7%	18.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	62.7%	35.8%	6.8%	—	36.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	56.4%	40.5%	30.1%	—	47.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	2.6%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	62.3%	40.1%	23.8%	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	35.0%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	64.6%	36.3%	37.1%	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	60.7%	28.7%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	60.9%	35.6%	39.1%	—	57.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	46.2%	32.6%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	48.0%	33.9%	29.6%	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	40.1%	38.2%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	38.8%	39.8%	21.2%	0.0%	40.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	38.5%	39.5%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	50.0%	41.3%	20.6%	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	47.8%	36.7%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	39.6%	40.8%	14.0%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	47.6%	40.5%	19.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	57.4%	46.3%	28.7%	33.1%	43.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	52.6%	41.0%	31.4%	—	41.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	40.7%	40.7%	29.5%	36.8%	44.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	55.6%	45.8%	37.7%	—	51.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	66.9%	48.5%	41.4%	51.4%	57.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	45.5%	27.2%	—	44.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	70.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	69.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	64.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗