KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

51%

37%

33%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.70u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.30u · EPS −36.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	90.9%	44.1%	92.1%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	90.9%	44.1%	92.1%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	90.9%	44.1%	92.1%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	90.9%	44.1%	92.1%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	85.7%	44.1%	92.0%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	85.7%	38.8%	92.0%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	85.7%	38.8%	92.0%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	85.7%	38.8%	92.0%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	85.7%	38.8%	90.1%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	85.7%	38.8%	90.1%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	85.7%	38.8%	90.1%	68.2%	26.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	90.1%	68.2%	66.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	90.1%	68.2%	66.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	90.1%	68.2%	66.0%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	90.1%	68.2%	66.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	90.1%	64.2%	66.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	92.3%	64.2%	66.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	92.3%	64.2%	66.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	91.7%	38.8%	92.3%	64.2%	66.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	81.8%	38.8%	92.3%	64.2%	66.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	81.8%	38.8%	92.3%	64.2%	66.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:02+00:00	82.8%	21.1%	91.8%	61.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	82.8%	21.1%	91.8%	61.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	82.8%	21.1%	91.8%	61.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	82.8%	21.1%	88.1%	61.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	82.8%	21.1%	88.1%	61.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	82.8%	21.1%	88.1%	61.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	85.1%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	86.3%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	86.3%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	86.3%	21.1%	88.1%	40.4%	77.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	91.2%	36.9%	93.4%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	91.2%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	91.2%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	91.2%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	91.5%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	91.5%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	91.5%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	91.5%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	91.5%	36.9%	94.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	91.5%	41.5%	96.0%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	91.5%	41.5%	96.0%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	91.5%	41.5%	96.0%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	92.5%	41.5%	96.0%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	92.5%	41.5%	96.0%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	92.5%	45.7%	96.0%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	92.5%	45.7%	96.0%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	92.5%	45.7%	96.0%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	92.5%	45.7%	95.7%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	92.5%	45.7%	95.7%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	92.5%	45.7%	95.7%	67.7%	75.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	95.7%	67.7%	72.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	95.7%	67.7%	72.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	95.7%	67.7%	72.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	95.7%	67.7%	72.5%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	95.7%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:17+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	91.6%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	97.4%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	96.6%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	91.9%	45.7%	96.6%	66.3%	72.5%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	90.5%	45.7%	96.6%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	90.5%	45.7%	96.6%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	90.5%	45.7%	96.6%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	90.5%	45.7%	96.6%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	90.5%	45.7%	96.6%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	90.5%	45.4%	97.8%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	90.5%	45.4%	97.8%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	90.5%	45.4%	97.8%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	85.9%	45.4%	97.8%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	85.9%	45.6%	97.8%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:26+00:00	85.9%	41.2%	97.8%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	85.9%	41.2%	97.8%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	85.9%	41.2%	97.3%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	85.9%	41.2%	97.3%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	85.9%	41.2%	97.3%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	85.9%	41.2%	97.3%	61.4%	55.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	97.3%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	97.3%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	97.3%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	97.3%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	85.3%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	95.7%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	94.5%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	94.5%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	94.5%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	84.8%	41.2%	94.5%	52.7%	46.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	88.1%	41.2%	94.5%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	88.1%	41.2%	94.5%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	88.1%	41.2%	94.5%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	88.1%	41.2%	94.5%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	88.1%	26.8%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	88.1%	26.8%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	88.1%	26.8%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	88.1%	26.8%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	85.0%	27.2%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00	85.0%	27.2%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	85.0%	32.7%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	85.0%	32.7%	96.7%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	85.0%	32.7%	95.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	85.0%	32.7%	95.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	85.0%	32.7%	95.0%	53.9%	46.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	95.0%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	95.0%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	95.0%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	95.0%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	95.0%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	94.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	94.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	83.8%	32.7%	94.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	84.4%	32.7%	94.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	84.4%	32.7%	94.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	84.4%	32.7%	94.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	84.4%	32.7%	94.7%	51.0%	36.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	70.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	69.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	64.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	64.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗