KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

62%

43%

23%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.50u · ICON −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	27.5%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	25.7%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	2.4%	47.3%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	40.3%	31.7%	2.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	52.2%	27.2%	14.0%	—	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	55.3%	28.9%	4.6%	—	29.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	48.4%	33.0%	23.6%	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	1.6%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	32.2%	17.8%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	27.4%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	56.1%	28.4%	29.1%	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	51.8%	21.5%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	51.8%	27.4%	30.6%	—	48.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	37.0%	24.6%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	38.5%	25.5%	21.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	30.8%	29.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	29.4%	30.3%	14.5%	0.0%	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	28.8%	29.8%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	39.2%	31.1%	13.7%	—	28.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.7%	26.7%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	28.9%	30.0%	8.5%	0.0%	23.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.9%	29.3%	11.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	45.0%	34.2%	19.1%	22.7%	32.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	39.8%	29.1%	20.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	28.4%	28.4%	19.1%	25.1%	31.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	41.7%	32.5%	25.3%	—	37.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	52.9%	34.5%	28.0%	37.2%	42.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	31.1%	16.2%	—	29.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	72.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	68.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	59.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗