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KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
88%
WN2
87%
HRES
62%
EPS
43%
ICON
23%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u
VS
ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.50u · ICON −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.9% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 62.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:0010-13 08:0210-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:0087.6%43.2%86.9%62.4%23.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:0087.6%43.2%86.9%62.4%23.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:0087.6%43.2%86.9%62.4%23.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:0087.6%43.2%86.9%62.4%23.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single88%73.0°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 287%72.5°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
IFS HRES62%68.5°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend56%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble43%65.9°F3.5°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON23%59.3°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗