KPIT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

78%

46%

38%

31%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

EPSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.70u · EPS −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	7.8%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	9.0%	51.3%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	47.9%	47.2%	4.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	44.9%	26.0%	23.2%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	58.3%	29.6%	46.9%	—	52.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	61.0%	30.1%	46.0%	—	45.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	5.8%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	36.9%	25.8%	44.2%	—	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	22.6%	23.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	31.4%	24.8%	29.9%	—	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	31.0%	22.2%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	30.6%	20.9%	15.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	28.4%	20.3%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	32.1%	20.3%	7.9%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	35.3%	26.5%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	25.9%	20.4%	3.4%	—	19.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	31.6%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	45.6%	33.1%	6.2%	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	40.0%	31.5%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	28.9%	27.0%	4.8%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	46.4%	38.1%	6.6%	—	24.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	59.9%	30.9%	10.0%	17.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	24.8%	7.2%	—	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	68.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	46%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	64.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗