KPIT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

78%

46%

38%

31%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

EPSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.70u · EPS −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:48+00:00	87.6%	43.8%	87.2%	39.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	87.6%	43.8%	87.2%	39.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	87.6%	43.8%	88.8%	39.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	87.6%	43.8%	88.8%	39.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	87.6%	43.8%	88.8%	39.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	89.6%	43.8%	88.8%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	89.6%	43.8%	88.8%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	89.6%	43.8%	88.8%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	89.6%	43.8%	88.8%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	89.6%	43.8%	88.8%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	89.6%	43.8%	92.7%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	89.6%	28.2%	92.7%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	89.6%	28.2%	92.7%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	90.0%	28.2%	92.7%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	90.0%	28.2%	92.7%	52.4%	65.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	87.5%	32.2%	92.4%	57.2%	74.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	87.5%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	74.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	87.5%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	74.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	87.5%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	74.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	89.8%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	89.8%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	89.8%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	89.8%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	89.8%	32.2%	93.3%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	89.8%	40.1%	96.4%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	89.8%	40.1%	96.4%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	89.8%	40.1%	96.4%	57.2%	75.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	87.1%	40.1%	96.4%	62.9%	75.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	87.1%	40.1%	96.4%	62.9%	75.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	87.1%	42.9%	96.4%	62.9%	75.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	87.1%	42.9%	96.4%	62.9%	75.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	87.1%	42.9%	96.4%	62.9%	75.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	87.1%	42.9%	96.8%	62.9%	75.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	87.1%	42.9%	96.8%	62.9%	75.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	87.1%	42.9%	96.8%	62.9%	75.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	96.8%	62.9%	57.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	96.8%	62.9%	57.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	96.8%	62.9%	57.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	96.8%	62.9%	57.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	96.8%	57.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:17+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	97.1%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	94.3%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	83.3%	42.9%	94.3%	57.5%	57.2%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	85.8%	42.9%	94.3%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	85.8%	42.9%	94.3%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	85.8%	42.9%	94.3%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	85.8%	42.9%	94.3%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	85.8%	42.9%	94.3%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	85.8%	35.9%	96.2%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	85.8%	35.9%	96.2%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	85.8%	35.9%	96.2%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	81.5%	35.9%	96.2%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	81.4%	35.9%	96.2%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:26+00:00	81.4%	31.6%	96.2%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	81.4%	31.6%	96.2%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	81.4%	31.6%	94.6%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	81.4%	31.6%	94.6%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	81.4%	31.6%	94.6%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	81.4%	31.6%	94.6%	57.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	94.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	94.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	94.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	94.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	79.0%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	89.1%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	84.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	84.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	84.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	76.4%	31.6%	84.6%	46.0%	45.9%
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	77.3%	31.6%	84.6%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	77.3%	31.6%	84.6%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	77.3%	31.6%	84.6%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	77.3%	31.6%	84.6%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	77.3%	17.9%	87.0%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	77.3%	17.9%	87.0%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	77.3%	17.9%	87.0%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	77.3%	17.9%	87.0%	36.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	73.6%	18.7%	87.0%	36.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00	73.6%	18.7%	87.0%	36.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	73.6%	22.3%	87.0%	36.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	73.6%	22.3%	87.0%	36.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	73.6%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	73.6%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	73.6%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	72.1%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	68.0%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	68.0%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	68.0%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	68.0%	22.3%	86.4%	36.8%	32.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00	77.1%	23.2%	87.7%	41.3%	26.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	77.1%	23.2%	90.2%	41.3%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	77.1%	23.2%	90.2%	41.3%	26.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	77.1%	23.2%	90.2%	41.3%	26.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	77.7%	23.2%	90.2%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	77.7%	23.2%	90.2%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	77.7%	23.2%	90.2%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	77.7%	23.2%	90.2%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00	77.7%	31.1%	91.5%	38.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	77.7%	31.1%	91.5%	38.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	77.7%	31.1%	91.5%	38.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	77.7%	31.1%	91.5%	38.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	77.8%	31.1%	91.5%	38.3%	45.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00	77.8%	31.1%	91.5%	38.3%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	68.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	46%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	64.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗