KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

58%

44%

34%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.6¢Risks 62.55u

EPSNO 37.4¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.45u · EPS −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	69.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	19.8%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	78.8%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	7.5%	43.3%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	73.1%	54.2%	5.6%	—	63.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	44.2%	44.2%	66.3%	—	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	46.2%	39.4%	53.8%	—	65.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	39.7%	40.5%	36.7%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	2.5%	43.5%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	32.2%	37.7%	22.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	23.3%	44.9%	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	42.2%	39.6%	17.8%	—	43.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	42.9%	45.5%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	28.9%	44.5%	9.4%	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.2%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	48.0%	47.1%	15.9%	—	45.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	42.0%	38.2%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	36.9%	44.9%	16.3%	—	39.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	47.9%	43.7%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	61.8%	44.5%	28.2%	43.5%	43.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	41.0%	0.0%	—	40.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	67.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	64.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	44%	62.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	62.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗