KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

58%

44%

34%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.6¢Risks 62.55u

EPSNO 37.4¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.45u · EPS −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	76.4%	38.4%	89.1%	55.6%	44.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00	76.4%	38.4%	91.0%	55.6%	44.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	76.4%	38.4%	91.0%	55.6%	44.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	76.4%	38.4%	91.0%	55.6%	44.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00	77.3%	38.4%	91.0%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	77.3%	38.4%	91.0%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	77.3%	38.4%	91.0%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	77.3%	38.4%	91.0%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	77.3%	38.4%	91.0%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	77.3%	43.0%	91.4%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	77.3%	43.0%	91.4%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	77.3%	43.0%	91.4%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	79.4%	43.0%	91.4%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	79.4%	43.0%	91.5%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:15+00:00	79.4%	34.1%	91.5%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	79.4%	34.1%	91.5%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	79.4%	34.1%	91.5%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	79.4%	34.1%	90.5%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	79.4%	34.1%	90.5%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	79.4%	34.1%	90.5%	59.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	90.5%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	90.5%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	90.5%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	90.5%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	90.5%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	91.0%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	91.0%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	82.0%	34.1%	91.0%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	83.8%	34.1%	91.0%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	83.8%	34.1%	91.0%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	83.8%	34.1%	91.0%	58.0%	44.0%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	83.8%	34.1%	91.0%	58.0%	44.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	67.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	64.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	44%	62.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	62.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗