KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

75%

47%

38%

16%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.9¢Risks 49.85u

EPSNO 50.2¢Risks 50.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.15u · EPS −50.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	12.2%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	68.2%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	3.8%	30.6%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	60.4%	40.3%	2.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	30.4%	30.4%	52.2%	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	31.6%	25.8%	38.7%	—	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	25.5%	26.1%	23.0%	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.9%	28.3%	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	18.9%	23.2%	12.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	12.3%	28.8%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	26.2%	24.1%	8.6%	—	26.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	26.4%	28.7%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	15.4%	27.4%	3.8%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	19.6%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	29.6%	28.7%	6.8%	—	27.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	24.1%	21.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	19.7%	25.9%	6.7%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	27.9%	24.5%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	40.3%	24.7%	13.1%	23.8%	23.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	21.4%	0.0%	—	20.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	68.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	64.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	62.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗