KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

75%

47%

38%

16%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.9¢Risks 49.85u

EPSNO 50.2¢Risks 50.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.15u · EPS −50.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	92.3%	52.2%	92.0%	46.2%	27.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	92.3%	52.2%	92.0%	46.2%	27.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	92.3%	52.2%	92.0%	46.2%	27.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	92.3%	52.2%	92.0%	46.2%	27.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	92.3%	52.2%	92.0%	46.2%	27.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	89.9%	43.2%	91.9%	56.2%	73.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	89.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	73.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	89.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	73.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	89.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	73.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	87.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	87.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	87.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	87.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	87.9%	43.2%	92.5%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	87.9%	30.5%	95.7%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	87.9%	30.5%	95.7%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	87.9%	30.5%	95.7%	56.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	86.3%	30.5%	95.7%	57.2%	54.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	86.2%	30.5%	95.7%	57.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	86.2%	32.8%	95.7%	57.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	86.2%	32.7%	95.7%	57.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	86.2%	32.7%	95.7%	57.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	86.2%	32.7%	96.2%	57.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	86.2%	32.7%	96.2%	57.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	86.2%	32.7%	96.2%	57.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	96.2%	57.2%	56.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	96.2%	57.2%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	96.2%	57.2%	56.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	96.2%	57.2%	56.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	96.2%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	84.5%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	92.7%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	89.3%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	83.6%	32.7%	89.3%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	81.2%	32.7%	89.3%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	81.2%	32.7%	89.3%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	81.2%	32.7%	89.3%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	81.2%	32.7%	89.3%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	81.2%	32.7%	89.3%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	81.2%	30.9%	90.1%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	81.2%	30.9%	90.1%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	81.2%	30.9%	90.1%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	69.3%	30.9%	90.1%	47.2%	46.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	69.3%	30.9%	90.1%	47.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	64.9%	27.7%	79.6%	37.8%	40.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	64.9%	27.7%	78.9%	37.8%	40.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	64.9%	27.7%	78.9%	37.8%	40.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	64.9%	27.7%	78.9%	37.8%	40.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	64.9%	27.7%	78.9%	37.8%	40.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	78.9%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	78.9%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	78.9%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	65.3%	27.7%	78.9%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	65.3%	11.8%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	65.3%	11.8%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	65.3%	11.8%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	65.3%	11.8%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	62.0%	11.8%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00	62.0%	11.8%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	62.0%	15.0%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	62.0%	15.0%	76.5%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	62.0%	15.0%	75.7%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00	62.0%	15.0%	75.7%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	62.0%	15.0%	75.7%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	60.3%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	61.1%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	61.1%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	61.1%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	61.1%	15.0%	75.7%	39.7%	29.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00	69.7%	13.7%	77.2%	40.3%	25.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	69.7%	13.7%	83.0%	40.3%	25.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	69.7%	13.7%	83.0%	40.3%	25.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	69.7%	13.7%	83.0%	40.3%	25.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	74.8%	13.7%	83.0%	40.3%	36.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	74.8%	13.7%	83.0%	40.3%	36.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	74.8%	13.7%	83.0%	40.3%	36.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	74.8%	13.7%	83.0%	40.3%	36.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00	74.8%	15.9%	84.1%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	74.8%	15.9%	84.1%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	74.8%	15.9%	84.1%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	74.8%	15.9%	84.1%	47.1%	36.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	74.8%	15.5%	84.2%	47.1%	37.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:20+00:00	74.8%	15.5%	84.2%	47.1%	37.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	68.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	64.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	62.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗