KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

EPSNO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.40u · EPS −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	20.2%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	3.1%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	12.6%	4.9%	0.0%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	2.4%	2.4%	7.9%	—	4.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	2.2%	1.5%	3.5%	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	1.2%	1.2%	1.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.5%	0.8%	0.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.2%	1.1%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.8%	0.9%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.2%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	0.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	68.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	8%	64.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	65.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗