KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PALow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

31%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.1¢Risks 21.15u

EPSNO 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.85u · EPS −78.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	9.6%	12.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.7%	5.1%	3.5%	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.5%	4.2%	2.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	4.2%	8.7%	2.4%	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	5.5%	12.7%	2.2%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	3.1%	11.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	9.0%	14.8%	3.8%	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	31.1%	8.5%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	17.8%	11.3%	4.1%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	22.9%	7.8%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	20.9%	11.5%	5.8%	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	21.0%	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	31.3%	8.2%	7.2%	—	5.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	27.4%	7.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	35.9%	6.1%	3.0%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	23.6%	3.0%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	20.6%	4.5%	2.1%	58.7%	4.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	—	5.4%	2.1%	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	42%	33.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	34.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	37.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	38.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	44.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.5°F	1.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗