WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PALow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
42%
ICON
31%
WN2
13%
HRES
11%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 21.1¢Risks 21.15u
VS
EPSNO 78.8¢Risks 78.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.85u · EPS −78.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00AIFS Single: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 42.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:0042.3%0.0%12.9%10.7%31.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0042.3%0.0%12.9%10.7%31.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0042.3%0.0%12.9%10.7%31.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0042.3%0.0%12.9%10.7%31.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0042.3%0.0%12.9%10.7%31.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single42%33.3°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON31%34.5°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 213%37.6°F4.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES11%38.7°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend7%37.0°F3.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%44.0°F4.3°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%38.5°F1.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗