KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

94%

67%

45%

30%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.7¢Risks 64.70u

HRESNO 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.30u · HRES −35.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	83.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	2.7%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	3.9%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	22.3%	72.4%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	66.4%	89.1%	28.6%	—	81.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	59.4%	75.1%	59.4%	—	64.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	36.5%	81.1%	43.9%	—	59.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	81.6%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.5%	71.9%	82.1%	43.6%	—	47.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	8.2%	45.1%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	65.5%	84.3%	49.2%	—	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	38.2%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	38.8%	79.2%	25.5%	—	26.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	32.6%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	24.4%	78.4%	33.9%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	44.3%	79.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	38.5%	75.3%	47.1%	63.4%	24.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	71.8%	—	—	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	67.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	66.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	60.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	61.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	45%	59.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	57.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗